Ukraine is not yet properly prepared for this: Zelensky is not a military leader.
The United States, thanks to active influence on European allies and by providing them with intelligence information, managed to convince them that Russia was allegedly preparing an invasion of Ukraine. This stimulated Europe to «support the idea of the need for serious sanctions threats to contain the Kremlin.»
Information injection continues, now it is already forming a kind of full-fledged picture of the world, in which all the accents are set by default.
America has fully included in this game Ukraine itself (which no one really asked), and now it also includes Europe. In this situation, even a “self-fulfilling prophecy” is out of the question — simply because in the current political situation, war is inevitable in any case.
Ukraine is being prepared for this methodically and for a long time. She is trained to war like a circus animal.
The only question is when will it happen. Let’s repeat: not now.
Ukraine is not yet properly prepared for this: Zelensky is not a military leader. And they are demolishing it now, to a large extent, for this very reason — in order to bring to power someone much more suitable for war.
But let’s assume that something terrible will happen. With a 100% probability, a new war will start in Donbass.
And in this case, two scenarios are likely: 1) Russia interferes 2) Russia does not intervene (or does not intervene in a timely manner, which is basically the same).
If the Russian Federation intervenes, everything will be resolved rather quickly. According to Ukrainian military experts (in this part, it is important to cite their opinion), in order to resist this, Ukraine will either need to attract foreign troops (which is unlikely), or to carry out a total proactive mobilization and concentrate all available cash on the border. …
And in order to understand what will happen, one must be aware of what Russia has undertaken in this direction in the past few years. Until 2014, the likelihood of a war with Ukraine was not considered and military units were not created on the border.
Now everything is different.
Since 2015 in the northern part of the border
To the south, in Voronezh, the administration of the 20th combined-arms army was created, the core of which was the reconstituted 10th Guards Tank Division with its headquarters in Boguchar.
The entire region of the Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh regions is actively saturated with troops, including the transfer of two motorized rifle brigades here. There is a possibility of forming another division there.
And completely in the south, in the Rostov region, the creation of the 150th motorized rifle division in Novocherkassk began. Probably the creation of another army there, subordinate to the Southern Military District.
In total, already now, on the border with Ukraine, previously demilitarized, three powerful groups have been created, capable of grinding all available units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine up to Kiev.
We do not even need to «pull together troops»: at least 60 thousand bayonets are on the border right now — in places of permanent deployment. This is without taking into account what is available in the Donbass.
In the event of a major invasion by these forces in Ukraine
But this is only if Russia intervenes, moreover, in a timely manner and in full.
And if not?
Let’s suppose that diplomacy expressed deep concern, or the decision was “late”. In this case, a quick catastrophe will happen in the Donbas. What, in turn,
The truth is that the preparation and formation of the so-called. The «people’s militia» of the Republics (which replaced the Militia and the Supreme Military Council in accordance with the «Minsk agreements», for which there is no alternative) are an absolute failure of the curators both in organizational and military terms.
The once combat-ready and ardently motivated units were reorganized into something that, of course, is capable of fighting, but it seems that it is no longer possible to win against the AFU, which had powerfully strengthened over several years. This is to put it very mildly.
The situation at the front now is as follows: the subunits lack night vision devices and, often, even cadres capable of using them. Total incompleteness reigns. Many of the posts on the map are already abandoned in reality. At night, the existing posts often lack the ability to control the surrounding space. That is, the enemy can easily enter and cut the path of approach to the front line. Which will fight heroically, but will not receive reinforcements.
Further, the current Armed Forces have every opportunity to crush the defenders with numbers and ammunition, which the defenders of Donbass will have enough for half an hour of active combat. The Ukrainian Armed Forces now have total superiority in artillery (both quantitative and qualitative). We quote Donbass sources: “On our 82-mm mortar — a battery of 120-mm mortars, on our 120-mm mortar battery — a division of 122-mm howitzers, on our 122-mm D-30 battery or Gvozdik — a 152-mm division self-propelled «Akats» or non-self-propelled «Msta-B». Moreover, his artillery is being corrected from the air in real time «(c). No comment.
Next, the tanks. How many of the available 450-500 units are truly fully combat-ready is an interesting question. There is
As a result, according to the results of the first day, the front line may be swept away, and we will talk about the fierce, but doomed resistance of numerous groups blocked in development, and about the enemy entering the border with Russia in certain directions.
Who, how and why brought the former Militia to such a state is a separate question. And it’s not here to ask it. The main thing is that they did not have to answer it, observing columns of thousands of refugees at the border and listening to «decisive diplomatic protests.»
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